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Why do football pools systems work (in general)? Simply, because the performance of football teams is not in the long run random ? teams do in fact play broadly to form, but they only work if they are based on sound statistical analysis.
There are two parts to solving the problem of how to win the football pools. The first is the performance analysis ? the designer of the system should have looked at past results of teams and matches, and then produced a mathematical model which explains the results with a reasonable degree of accuracy. designer sunglasses for men , It should enable predictions to be made on the basis of the mathematical model.
Actually accuracy only needs to be slightly better than random. An edge of a few percent above random is adequate in the long run, but we would expect to do much better occasionally, and win. Of course, we want to win enough to cover the stakes on those weeks we did not win, so that it becomes a profitable exercise. But, there is another factor ? a long run small edge is not enough, you have to have enother element in your plan if you are to reduce the odds to realistic levels some of the time (and by that we mean odds of about 3/1).
So, the second part in the football pools problem is what we call coverage. oakley sunglasses , It is not economic to cover every possible combination on a coupon of 49 matches ? there are 450 million ways of lining up any eight score draw results, if there are eight ? there could be as few as three some weeks (thankfully rarely). That is where ‘plans' and ‘perms' come in. oakley sunglasses cheap , ? These are ways of covering say 20 to 24 selections on a coupon in such a way that when there are maybe 12-15 score draw results on a given coupon, then there is a reasonable expectation of winnings if we have forecast say six or eight of those draws. Put simply, the plan may cover the 20 forecast selections in such a way that 25,000 possible 8 match combinations are staked. This reduces the odds significantly. Some plans are illustrated at football pools plans.
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